The Role of Interventions in Causal Decision Theory

Causal Bayes Nets provide a nice formal representation of the world’s causal and probabilistic structure, and so it is natural to want formulate causal decision theory (CDT) in terms of causal Bayes nets. Lots of good work has been done on this front—see, in particular, Meek and Glymour (1994), Pearl (2000, chapter 4), Hitchcock (2016), and Stern (2017). Central to these formulations of CDT is the distinction between a probability function which has been conditioned on an act A’s performance and a probability function which has been updated on an intervention bringing about A’s performance.

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